Nepal one of the calmest nation in the world once again faced dramatic events. Within a single week, the country is going through a regime change the Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is now former Prime Minister and reports says that he has ran out of country. This all happened just after KP Oli returned from China and announced complete ban on US based social media platforms.
This all is happening in such a dramatic way that now geo-political experts across the countries are questioning that this is happening because citizens are against government or some external powers are playing role in the regime change?
KP Sharma Oli’s China Visit: A Show of Strategic Alignment
Oli’s China visit was seen as Anti-US symbol as he took part in Beijing’s Victory Day Parade, as well as seated alongside leaders of Communist parties across the world. As per the Nepali delegation the visit depicts Nepal’s deep friendship with China and Oli himself described China’s visit as a “Trusted Development Partner”.
As per Nepal’s government, several memoranda were discussed, ranging from infrastructure development under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to enhanced cooperation in trade, tourism, and digital technology.
According to many Geo-Politics experts , Oli’s presence in Beijing strengthens the long-held belief that Nepal, under his leadership, was tilting more firmly toward China’s strategic orbit.
The Ban on US Platforms: A Controversial Move
The major turning point in the incident was when Nepal’s PM Oli announced complete ban on US based social media platforms citing “National Security” and “Data Privacy”. And secretly permissions to Chinese social media platform were given.
The Nepal’s younger population who was the prominent user of these platforms argued the intention of the government, that the Oli government is totally shifting towards China and these lead to an outrage and slowly these became movement and resulted into resignation of ministers and prime minister KP Sharma Oli.
A Sudden Regime Change in Nepal
These all happened within a week after oli returned back from China. The Parliamentary allies withdrew support and negotiations for power sharing deal collapsed.
The timing of the regime change — so soon after his China visit and the anti-US digital policy — has become the subject of intense debate.
External Influence?
While Nepal’s political system has historically been volatile since 2008, the speed and sequence of recent events raise questions. Some experts argue that Oli’s policy shift may have alarmed external stakeholders, especially the United States, which has significant strategic interests in South Asia.
Conspiracy theories floating in Kathmandu and around the world, that global powers may have quietly interfered domestic actors toward ending Oli’s tenure.
Importantly, there is no evidence to suggest direct foreign interference. However, the coincidence of events — pro-China diplomacy, anti-US digital bans, and regime change — has fueled speculation across political circles, think tanks, and social media discussions.
Nepal at the Crossroads of Global Rivalry
Nepal occupies a delicate position in South Asia’s geopolitical chessboard. Sandwiched between China and India, with growing engagement from the United States, the Himalayan nation often finds itself balancing competing global interests.
The United States has expanded its development initiatives in Nepal, most notably the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact, which Beijing has criticized as a tool of US influence.
China, on the other hand, has consistently promoted infrastructure and connectivity projects, urging Kathmandu to embrace its BRI vision.
Oli’s latest moves seemed to tilt the balance further toward Beijing, which may have unsettled Nepal’s other partners.
Domestic Politics vs. Global Pressures
Some political commentators caution against overemphasizing foreign involvement. Nepal’s domestic politics are notoriously fragmented, with coalition governments regularly collapsing due to personal rivalries, internal splits, and shifting allegiances.
“It is tempting to see external hands in every major shake-up,” one Kathmandu-based analyst told local media. “But sometimes, it’s just Nepal’s own political instability at play.”
Still, the timing of Oli’s resignation makes it hard for many to dismiss the idea of external influence altogether.
Looking Ahead
As Nepal navigates its next phase of leadership, questions about sovereignty, external influence, and geopolitical balancing will continue to dominate discourse. Whether Oli’s downfall was purely domestic or subtly nudged by global powers, the episode highlights the fragile equilibrium that small states must maintain in today’s polarized world.
For Nepalis, however, the concern remains unchanged: stability, economic growth, and governance in a country often caught between superpower rivalries.
